Foot Fault!

2011 has seen an unprecedented year at the slams from the big four. In the sixteen semi-final spots available this year, only two have been filled by players outside of that charmed square. And even those two were the result of Nadal injuring himself early in his Australian Open quarterfinal and Federer choking a two-set lead in his Wimbledon semifinal. The monopoly continues in Flushing Meadows.

Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic

We all know what happened the last time these two men met. That finger twirl from Roger after he took out Novak at the French Open wasn’t just elation at reaching the final of the French Open. He showed off because he knew that he had ended the Djokovic winning streak and killed the hype surrounding it, and he was so pleased with himself for doing so.

And it’s this that makes matches between these two so exciting; they’re not friends and nor do they pretend to be (*cough* Rafole). It’s not just a final of the US Open at stake when these two play. it’s also bragging rights. And with two grown, red-blooded men who openly dislike each other, that’s probably an even bigger motivation for both today.

Federer has been playing so well this fortnight, and just as people were almost beginning to hold Tsonga as the favourite after his two recent victories over the GOAT, Fed simply shook his head, flicked his hair, laughed, and then proceeded to dish a beatdown on Tsonga. Djokovic hasn’t been quite so good, with his play far too passive - particularly against Tipsarevic and Dolgopolov. But the Serb has become such an incredible big-match player this year, so expect that all to change today.

Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray

Three years ago, Andy Murray came of age as he defeated Rafael Nadal in this very round of the US Open in four sets. It was huge. So huge that I still vividly recall Mark Petchey’s triumphant “HE DID IT, HE’S IN THE FINAL!!!!1!” as the Scot put the final nail into Nadal’s 2008 US Open coffin. It seemed like Murray had finally arrived and even if he lost in the final, he had risen to Nadal’s level and the slams would soon follow.

Three years later, Nadal has immensely improved on all surfaces, finally conquring both hard court slams and doubling his Grand Slam tally with five more. Meanwhile Murray’s tally still stands at zero and his only big-time performance against a ‘big 4′ player in a slam came in his retirement vicory over Rafael Nadal in the quarters of Australia in 2010.

For those reasons, this match-up is advantage Nadal. After a slow start, he seems to be playing great this week, with the days of wetting his pants at the mere mention of Novak Djokovic’s name possibly over.

That’s not to say that Murray doesn’t have a chance though, and if he looks to get the first strike in and can keep his forehand together, opportunities will open up. But he’ll need to show so much more resilience and mental strength than at Wimbledon this year when he fell apart from a set and break up after only one bad point.

Predictions

Nadal in 3.
Djokovic in 5.

Gutsy, gutsy picks. I know.

Amongst a slew of raised eyebrows and exasperated headshakes at the appalling handling of the draw ceremony by both the USTA and ESPN, the US Open singles draws were finally drawn and quartered yesterday for the world to see.

For the men’s draw, you couldn’t escape the feeling that it was a complete anti-climax, as for what feels like the thousandth time in the last three years, Djokovic and Federer are seeded to meet each other in one semifinal, with Murray and Nadal in the the other. Yet again, it’s hard to look past those four, and its equally hard not to just roll eyes and shrug like Janko at the rest of the ‘contenders’ in the final slam of the year.

But enough idle discussion. Here’s the men’s draw analysed and discussed.

Djokovic’s quarter
The first few rounds are undeniably soft for Novak Djokovic, but at the same time there’s a hell of a lot of talent in his section, with the most notable names being Richard Gasquet in the fourth round and either Gael Monfils or Tomas Berdych in the quarters. I’d say that Berdych has the best chance of pushing Novak. We all saw him at Cincinnati as he finally appeared to break out of the mediocre form that has defined his year so far, easily dispatching Federer and then looking up to the task of putting Djokovic out of his shoulder-induced misery, before his own shoulder injury struck. Monfils himself took a set off Djokovic at that very tournament, but Berdych is the only player here who has proven that he can step up and produce his very best tennis on the very big stage, and there will always be that (albeit small) chance that he can do it again.

Federer’s quarter
One thing Federer has proven all this year is that playing brilliant tennis in the early rounds means absolutely nothing if you can’t reproduce it in the deep end of tournaments. However, this tough section could be the kick up the ass he needs. Tsonga could beat him, Fish could beat him, Verdas-ok, I’m getting a bit carried away there, but you get the picture. Grandpa Fed is vulnerable right now, so it’ll be interesting to see how this all pans out. One thing I’ll say is that even taking his recent form into account, you would be a fool to bet against him. An idiotic, punkass fool.

Murray’s quarter
For someone who most likely regards the US hardcourts as his favourite surface, his recent results on the stuff have been, well, odd. Over the last two years, he has captured two masters titles on the stuff while simultaneously suffering two early exits in a row at the US Open in addition to first match losses at a grand total of 5 tournaments on US soil in that period

This section could easily add yet another early exit to the list in the form of Wawrinka (last year’s conqurer), Del Potro, Soderling or even Lopez, or else he could ease through his section and into the third round, considering all four are either just coming back from injury or come to the final slam of the year in poor form.

Nadal’s quarter
This, my friends, is what is known on the streetz as a ‘catwalk’. Rafa has been the most vulnerable of all top players recently, but I just can’t see him losing barring a massive disaster for him. Youzhny could well channel his form from this time last year which could give him a good chance of landing the big upset, or else Roddick could play himself into form with his soft draw and begin to resemble the top player again. But yeah, no…

Predictions, predictions, predictions:
Semis
Djokovic def. Federer
Nadal def. Soderling

Final
Djokovic def. Nadal (exciting and unpredictable, of course).

Early matches to look forward to:
1R: Gulbis vs Youzhny, Baghdatis vs Isner, Monfils vs Dimitrov
2R: Harrison vs Tomic (which isn’t going to happen, but it’s fun to dream), Federer vs Bellucci (for the laughs), Ferrero vs Monfils

Keep an eye on:
Ryan Harrison

Full draw